|ISSN (số cũ)||1859-3682|
Tóm tắt: Trong những năm gần đây, kiều hối trở thành nguồn thu ngoại tệ quan trọng và ảnh hưởng đáng kể đến cán cân vãng lai cũng như các hoạt động kinh tế của nhiều quốc gia. Tuy nhiên, có nhiều tranh cãi về mối quan hệ giữa kiều hối và các chỉ số phát triển tài chính (PTTC) với tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT) của một quốc gia. Dựa trên bộ dữ liệu của 28 quốc gia thuộc khu vực châu Á – Thái Bình Dương giai đoạn 1995–2018, sử dụng phương pháp OLS (Ordinary Least Squares) và TSLS (Two Stage Least Squares) với các kiểu hồi quy gộp, hồi quy theo hiệu ứng cố định và hiệu ứng ngẫu nhiên, nghiên cứu này cung cấp các bằng chứng thực nghiệm tác động của kiều hối và PTTC đến TTKT. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy, kiều hối có mối tương quan âm đến nền kinh tế và dẫn đến kìm hãm sự TTKT; đồng thời, tỷ lệ tín dụng ở khu vực tư nhân cũng có tác động nghịch chiều lên biến TTKT và chỉ số PTTC cũng có tác động lên sự phát triển kinh tế.
Tài liệu tham khảo:
Adams Jr, R. H., & Page, J. (2005). Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries? World development, 33(10), 1645-1669
Adenutsi, D. E. (2011). Finncial development, international migrant remittances and endogenous growth in Ghana. Studies in Economics and Finance.
Aggarwal, R., Demigurc-Kunt, A., Martinez Peria, M.S. (2010). Do remittances promote financial development? Journal of Development Economics, forthcoming.
Aggarwal, R., Demirguc-Kunt, A., & Martinez Peria, M. S. (2006). Do workers' remittances promote financial development? The World Bank.
Ali, M. & Mim, S. B., (2012). Through which channels can remittances spur economic growth in MENA countries? Economics Discussion Paper, (2012-8).
Amuedo-Dorantes, C., & Pozo, S. (2004). Workers' remittances and the real exchange rate: a paradox of gifts. World development, 32(8), 1407-1417.
Anzoategui, D., Demirgüç-Kunt, A., & Martínez Pería, M. S. (2011). Remittances and financial inclusion: evidence from El Salvador. The World Bank.
Azam, J. P., & Gubert, F. (2006). Migrants' remittances and the household in Africa: a review of evidence. Journal of African Economies, 15(suppl_2), 426-462.
Bagehot, W. (1873). Lombard Street: a Description of the Money Market: By Walter Bagehot. Henry S. King & Company 65 Cornhill & 12 Paternoster Row, London.
Barajas, A., Chami, R., Hakura, D., Montiel, P., & Tressel, T. (2011). Workers' Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence [with comment]. Economia, 11(2), 45-99.
Barro, R. J. (1989). Black Monday and the future of financial markets. Richard d Irwin.
Barro, R. J. (1991). Economic growth in a cross section of countries. The quarterly journal of economics, 106(2), 407-443.
Bettin, G., Lucchetti, R., & Zazzaro, A. (2012). Financial development and remittances: Micro-econometric evidence. Economics Letters, 115(2), 184-186.
Bettin, G., & Zazzaro, A. (2012). Remittances and financial development: substitutes or complements in economic growth?. Bulletin of Economic Research, 64(4), 509-536.
Calderón, C., & Liu, L. (2003). The direction of causality between financial development and economic growth. Journal of development economics, 72(1), 321-334.
Calderon, C., Fajnzylber, P., & López, J. H. (2007). Remittances and growth: the role of complementary policies. Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America, 335-68.
Catrinescu, N., Leon-Ledesma, M., Piracha, M., & Quillin, B. (2009). Remittances, institutions, and economic growth. World Development, 37(1), 81-92.
Chami, R., & Fullenkamp, C. S. Jahjah (2003), “Are immigrant remittance flows a source of capital for development?”. IMF Staff Papers, 52(1).
Chami, R., Fullenkamp, C., & Jahjah, S. (2005). Are immigrant remittance flows a source of capital for development? IMF Staff papers, 52(1), 55-81.
Chami, R., Hakura, D. S., & Montiel, P. J. (2012). Do worker remittances reduce output volatility in developing countries? Journal of globalization and development, 3(1).
Easterly, W., & Levine, R. (1997). Africa's growth tragedy: policies and ethnic divisions. The quarterly journal of economics, 112(4), 1203-1250.
El-Sakka, M. I., & McNabb, R. (1999). The macroeconomic determinants of emigrant remittances. World Development, 27(8), 1493-1502.
Faini, R. (2007). Migration and remittances: the impact on countries of origin. Migration and Development: Mutual Benefits?
Freund, C., & Spatafora, N. (2008). Remittances, transaction costs, and informality. Journal of development economics, 86(2), 356-366.
Gapen, M. T., Chami, M. R., Montiel, M. P., Barajas, M. A., & Fullenkamp, C. (2009). Do workers' remittances promote economic growth? (No. 9-153). International Monetary Fund.
Giuliano, P., & Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2005). Remittances, financial development and growth. [05/234]. International Monetary fund Working Paper.
Giuliano, P., & Ruiz-Arranz, M. (2009). Remittances, financial development, and growth. Journal of Development Economics, 90(1), 144-152.
Haven, E. (2019).The mechanics of physics in finance and economics: Pitfalls from education and other issues. Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 3(1).
Hicks, J. (1969). A theory of economic history (Vol. 9). Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Kapur, D. (2003). Indian diaspora as a strategic asset. Economic and Political Weekly, 445-448.
King, R. G., & Levine, R. (1993). Finance and growth: Schumpeter might be right. The quarterly journal of economics, 108(3), 717-737.
Kireyev, M. A. (2006). The macroeconomics of remittances: the case of Tajikistan. International Monetary Fund.
Martinez Peria, M. S., Mascaro, Y., & Moizeszowicz, F. (2008). Do remittances affect recipient countries’ financial development? Remittances and Development: Lessons from Latin America,
Misati, R. N. (2007). Liberalization, Stock market development and investment efficiency in Africa. International review of Business research papers, 3(4), 183-191.
Misati, R. N., & Nyamongo, E. M. (2011). Financial development and private investment in Sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Economics and Business, 63(2), 139-151.
Mundaca, B. G. (2009). Remittances, financial market development, and economic growth: the case of Latin America and the Caribbean. Review of development economics, 13(2), 288-303.
Mohamed, E. S. & Sidiropoulos, M. G. (2010). Another Look at the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in MENA Countries: An Empirical Investigation. Journal of Economic Development, 35, 2.
Nyamongo, E. M., Misati, R. N., Kipyegon, L., & Ndirangu, L. (2011). Remittances and banking sector development in Sub Saharan African. In A paper presented at the global development forum, Dubai.
Nyamongo, E. M., Misati, R. N., Kipyegon, L., & Ndirangu, L. (2012). Remittances, financial development and economic growth in Africa. Journal of economics and business, 64(3), 240-260.
Nyamongo, M. E., & Misati, R. (2010). Modelling the time-varying volatility of equities returns in Kenya. African Journal of Economic and management studies, 1(2), 183-196.
Ojapinwa, T. V., & Bashorun, O. T. (2014). Do workers’ remittances promote financial development in Sub-Sahara Africa countries. International Journal of Financial Research, 5(2),
Ramirez, M. D., & Sharma, H. (2008). Remittances and growth in Latin America: a panel unit root and panel cointegration analysis.
Rao, B. B., & Hassan, G. M. (2011). A panel data analysis of the growth effects of remittances. Economic modelling, 28(1-2), 701-709.
Rao, B. B., & Hassan, G. M. (2012). Are the direct and indirect growth effects of remittances significant?. The World Economy, 35(3), 351-372.
Ravallion, M. (1997). Can high-inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty?. Economics letters, 56(1), 51-57.
Sachs, J. D., & Warner, A. M. (1997). Sources of slow growth in African economies. Journal of African economies, 6(3), 335-376.
Sala-i-Martin, X., Barro, R. J., & Barro, R. J. (1997). Empirics of Economics Growth: Cross-Sectional Analysis. Zagreb Journal of Economics, 1(1), 103-132.
Schumpeter, J. (1911). Theorie der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung (transl. 1934, The Theory of Economic Development: An inquiry into profits, capital, credit, interest and the business cycle). Vienna: Kyklos.
Solimano, A. (2003). Remittances by emigrants: issues and evidence. Santiago de Chile.
Taylor, J. E., Dyer, G. A., & Yúnez-Naude, A. (2005). Disaggregated rural economywide models for policy analysis. World development, 33(10), 1671-1688.
Thach, N. N., Anh, L. H., & An, P. T. H. (2019). The Effects of Public Expenditure on Economic Growth in Asia Countries: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach, Asian Journal of Economics and Banking, 3(1), 126-149.
World Bank Washington, USA, Pressgroup Holdings Europe Valencia, & Spain. (2004). Perspectives on Development. World Bank Publications.
World Bank (2003) Richard, A. H. J., & Page, J. (2003). International migration, remittances, and poverty in developing countries. The World Bank.
Abstract: In recent years, remittance has become an essential source of foreign income, and influenced remarkably into the current account as well as the economies of many nations, however, the controversy of the relationship between remittance and financial development index towards any national economic growth. Using a database from 28 countries of Asia – Pacific region from 1995 to 2018, the methods of OLS and 2SLS have been captured, and analysis of regressions was utilized to unveil the evidence of the effectiveness of remittance and financial development into economic growth. The results showed that remittances had a negative influence on the economy, which can be seen as the constraint of economic growth, besides credit ratio in the private sector also harmed economic development, and the financial development index had influenced the economy as well.