Tạp chí đã xuất bản
2004
ISSN
ISSN 2615-9813
ISSN (số cũ) 1859-3682

Số 181 | Tháng 4/2021

Ảnh hưởng của FDI đến tăng trưởng kinh tế tại các nước đang phát triển: Vai trò của phát triển tài chính

Vũ Thị Hải Minh, Phạm Thị Tuyết Trinh

Tóm tắt: Nghiên cứu phân tích vai trò của phát triển tài chính (PTTC) đối với tác động kích thích tăng trưởng kinh tế (TTKT) của dòng vốn đầu tư trực tiếp nước ngoài (FDI) tại các nước đang phát triển. Mô hình tự hồi quy ngưỡng (TAR) được sử dụng để phân tích dữ liệu của 23 nền kinh tế trong giai đoạn 1995–2019. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy tồn tại giá trị ngưỡng của PTTC làm thay đổi ảnh hưởng của FDI đến TTKT. Mức ngưỡng tìm được đối với mức PTTC đo lường bằng tỷ lệ M2 so với GDP và tín dụng so với GDP lần lượt là 51,839 và 24,593. FDI chỉ có ảnh hưởng tích cực đến TTKT khi PTTC bằng và vượt qua mức ngưỡng. Kết quả này khẳng định cho vai trò của PTTC như một nhân tố hấp thụ để nền kinh tế hưởng lợi từ các tác động của FDI.  

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Influence of FDI on Economic Growth in Developing Countries: The Role of Financial Development

Abstract: The study analyzes the role of financial development in the economic growth stimulating effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in developing countries. The Threshold AutoRegressive model (TAR) was used to analyze tha data of 23 economies over the period 1995–2019. The results show that there is a threshold value of financial development which changes the effect of FDI on economic growth. The thresholds found for financial development as measured by the ratio of M2 to GDP and credit to GDP are 51,839 and 24,593 respectively. FDI only has a positive effect on economic growth when financial development is equal to or greater than the threshold value. This result confirms the role of financial development as an absorbing factor for the economy to benefit from the effects of FDI.